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Thursday, 30 May 2013

Fallout of NGF Election: APC May capture 20 States

 





There are indications that the newly formed All progressives Congress (APC) may sweep electoral victory in 20 States of the Federation in the 2015 general elections.

APC is a new political party seeking registration from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). It is a merger of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Congress For Progressive Change (CPC), All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) and part of the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA)

The party has 11 State Governors in its kitty.

Investigations conducted by this blog reveal that except there are serious political alignments and realignments, the party may capture seven more States in the 2015 polls.

To justify this assumption, the recent Nigeria Governors Forum (NGF) election which polarised the governors into two factions is a yardstick that informed the recent political permutations.

The NGF election was won by Rivers State Governor, Rotimi Amaechi.

 Amaechi defeated his plateau State counterpart, Jonah Jang said to be the choice of the presidency by 19 votes to 16.

Yobe State Governor, Ibrahim Geidam who is of the ANPP stayed away from the polls citing personal reasons.

While Amaechi is of the PDP, it was gathered that he got block votes from the APC governors, in addition to eight PDP governors who cast their votes for him. The identity of the governors who voted Amaechi is shrouded in secrecy, though it is suspected that most of them might have come from the North.

The North has been strongly clamouring for the Presidency in 2015, thus opposing plans of President Jonathan to seek for a second term.
Niger State Governor and Chairman, Northern Nigeria Governors Forum (NNGF)  Muazu Babangida Aliyu had announced months ago that President Jonathan had promised to govern the country for one term and handover power to the North. The Presidency has severally refuted Aliyu’s claims.

 However, the NGF election, according to political analysts, is a rehearsal of what to expect in the forthcoming general elections in 2015. Those who backed Amaechi in the PDP might be itching to leave the party in the event their political permutations fail.

There have been reports of disaffection in the ruling PDP lately following the grouse expressed by some PDP governors who are uncomfortable with the leadership style of the party’s national Chairman, Bamanga Tukur.

Tukur had stirred the hornets nest when he sacked the PDP State executive loyal to Adamawa State Governor, Murtala Nyako. Most of the Governors in the party opposed the move and backed Nyako in calling for the reinstatement of the executives loyal to the State Governor.

The crisis in the party has further degenerated since Amaechi was suspended by the National Working Committee after the NGF election. He has been rumoured to be nursing a Vice Presidential ambition and this put him on war path with leaders of the South- South geo political zone who are rooting for a second term for President Goodluck Jonathan.

Though Amaechi has been reported to have said he will not leave the party having proceeded to the  Courts to challenge his suspension from the PDP, analyst contend it is a measure to buy time while he awaits the registration of the APC.

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